Jackets and jeans built this brand. Search sells them. Social spend needs a rethink.
£353.6k of revenue cross-referenced against £167.6k of paid spend — corrected now full account-level costs are in. Denim outerwear is the engine, Google runs 1.74x at account level, and blended MER is 2.11x lifetime, climbing to 2.9–3.9x since the Meta cut.
Six things the data says loudly
Denim outerwear is the franchise
Jackets alone are £102.9k (32%) of product revenue from 216 SKUs — nearly £476 per SKU, the best of any big category. Jeans add £67.1k. Together, over half the business.
Cargos punch hardest per SKU
Only 57 cargo SKUs generate £33.7k — £592 per SKU, the highest revenue density in the range. The catalogue is under-weighted here.
Search is the selling channel
Search referrers drove £117.9k of last-click revenue — nearly 3× social’s £41.3k. Corrected account-level Google spend is £84.5k returning £147.2k of platform value (1.74x) — solid, though the Shopping product subset alone runs 2.27x.
Meta's return is unproven
£83.1k Meta spend vs £41.3k last-click social revenue. Even doubling for view-through, it trails Google badly. The export contains no purchase value per product, so Meta can't defend itself with this data.
Best sellers are unfunded
Several £1.5k–£6.9k organic sellers received under £30 of combined paid support. The Acid Green Corduroy Trouser did £6.9k with almost zero ad spend. That's free growth being left on the table.
Timing can't be measured yet
Every file is a lifetime aggregate. The seasonal question — which products, when — needs monthly re-exports. Directional timing logic is given below; measured seasonality needs the data listed at the end.
Where the £318k actually comes from
Revenue by product type, with revenue-per-SKU showing which categories work hardest for their space in the range.
Revenue by product type
Revenue density
Paid spend vs revenue by type
Google ROAS by type
The products that carry the store
Top 30 by lifetime revenue. Stonewash denim jackets, the Norton family, acid-wash cargos and the Acid Green Corduroy line dominate.
Top 15 detail
Are the channels actually selling product?
Two lenses: Shopify sales channels (where the order was placed) and referrer source (what sent the buyer). Then the money question — revenue returned per £ spent.
Sales channels
Referrer source · last-click
Spend vs attributed revenue
What each referrer sells
Top products per referrer
Google Ads: £84.5k in, 1.74x out — corrected with account-level cost
Correction now the monthly cost file is in: account Google spend is £84,509 (2023–26) against £147.2k of platform conversion value — 1.74x. The earlier £15.7k / 2.27x figures came from the product-filtered report (product clicks only, a subset). The per-product winners and wasted-spend lists below still come from that report and remain valid at product level. One more find: Google cost in Sep 2025 was £0 — the account was paused during the peak search-demand month.
Cost vs conversion value · every product with ≥£25 spend
Top ROAS products min £25 spend
Biggest revenue drivers
Wasted spend · cost with zero conversions
Meta: £83.1k spent, value never reported — and the account already ran the test
Across every export, including the 48k-row monthly file, all revenue fields (Results value, ROAS, purchase conversion value) are empty or "mixed", and only 29% of product spend carries a readable product name. So Meta can't be judged on reported value. It can be judged on the spend-cut experiment in section 10: spend was cut 61% from Dec 25 and revenue rose.
Spend structure
Top 20 products by Meta spend named rows only
The honest read
12.0M impressions and 215k link clicks bought awareness, and social last-click revenue of £41.3k skews to statement pieces. With no per-product purchase value in any export, Meta ROAS is unmeasurable at product level — and the natural experiment (−£1,540/mo spend, −£276/mo trackable revenue) says the missing evidence probably wouldn't flatter it.
What Meta funded vs what sold
Meta's top-funded products (Acid Grey Faded Text Hoodie £550, Brown Check Flannel £540, Trucker in Floral/Paisley £510) are mostly not in the organic top 30 — spend chased new-drop statement pieces, not proven sellers.
If Meta earns budget back
Three conditions: value columns fixed in reporting (data gaps), catalog spend re-pointed at the proven push list in section 07, and concentrated into the measured May and Q4 revenue windows rather than spread flat. Until then, the ~£900/mo level looks right.
Which products to push — and which to stop paying for
Cross-referencing Shopify demand against combined paid spend surfaces two lists: proven sellers with near-zero ad support (push), and heavily-funded products that never sold (cut).
Push · organic winners, <£30 paid support
Cut / fix · heavy spend, weak sales
The new drop: selling, but the channels haven't caught up
113 new SKUs cross-referenced against sales, referrer, Google and Meta data. £17.5k banked so far — and where Google Shopping has picked new products up, it's returning 2.18x, right on the account average. The problem is coverage: several of the best new sellers are getting near-zero paid support.
Sales by line / family
Who's selling the new drop
Channel read
Search is 27% of new-drop revenue vs 33% for the range overall, and social just 10%. Meta has put only £1,410 of named spend behind 113 new SKUs. The channels are under-pushing the drop.
Top new sellers · with channel support
Worth pushing · proven, under-supported
Watch list · no traction yet
Verdict: worth pushing?
Yes — selectively. HARRINGTON (£2.5k across 5 SKUs), RIDER, ALEX and RYLA jackets, ONYX baggy jeans (£1.5k) and LOLA horseshoe jeans have proven demand. Google converts them at 2.18x. Fund those; hold the tail.
The Google coverage gap
ONYX did £1,521 on £20 of Google cost. MAVERICK's fur jacket did £656 on zero. RIDER's Cut N Sew jacket £524 on zero. These aren't failing products — they're unfunded ones.
SCUBA needs a decision
9 SKUs, £540 total. Loungewear sits outside the denim franchise that drives everything else. One funded push in the AW window, or cut the line's depth.
Are the old products still performing?
The established range (933 SKUs) holds £300.8k of the £318.3k total. The honest caveat: with lifetime aggregates only, "still" can't be measured — current velocity needs the monthly re-export. What the data does show is which veterans have the deepest demand and which channels sell them.
Established top 12 · channel splits
Search owns the classics
Every veteran top seller takes 25–45% of revenue from search — these products have SEO equity and shopping-feed history the new drop hasn't earned yet. They are the safe floor of the account.
Google still converts them
Where Google funded veterans, it paid: World Dynasty £775 → £1,385, Acid Wash Biker £689 → £1,584, Blue Wide Leg Cargo £393 → £1,328. Keep always-on budget here.
Trend check needs the monthly file
Whether these are growing or fading month-on-month is unknowable from lifetime totals. The Shopify monthly export in data gaps answers it — until then, treat veterans as proven but unconfirmed-current.
When products actually sell: the measured curve
Now built from all three monthly lenses: Shopify revenue, Google product demand, and Meta spend. Headline: May is LNP’s true peak revenue month — the all-time record is May 25 at £16.4k — with Nov–Dec the second peak. September spikes in Google search demand but not proportionally in revenue. And a natural experiment sits in the Meta data: spend was cut 61% from Dec 25 and revenue went up.
Monthly revenue vs Meta spend
Average revenue by calendar month
The real trading curve
May (£11.4k avg) is the biggest month, then Dec (£10.6k) and Nov (£9.8k). Feb and Aug are the troughs. Q4 revenue peaks even though Google search demand dips — that revenue comes from direct, promo and returning traffic, not search.
Monthly blended MER
Monthly conversion value · all products vs new drop
Seasonality heatmap · avg monthly value by type
Rising vs fading · last 6 months vs prior 6
The Meta natural experiment
Jan–Nov 25: £2,544/mo Meta spend, £9,934/mo revenue. Dec 25–Jul 26: Meta cut to £1,004/mo and revenue rose to £10,277/mo; trackable social sales fell just £276/mo. Cutting £1,540/mo cost ~£276/mo of measurable revenue. Google spend was near-identical across both windows (£2,154 vs £2,177/mo avg), so the Meta cut is the isolated variable. The burden of proof now sits firmly on Meta.
September is the search month, May the revenue month
Jackets do £4.1k avg Google value in Sep and the AW push must be live by mid-August — but total revenue peaks in May and Nov–Dec. Sep converts searchers; May and Q4 convert everyone.
May is the hidden second peak
Jackets spike again in May (£3.2k avg) alongside trousers and cargos — a spring transitional-outerwear window the calendar-led plan would miss entirely.
Oct–Nov is a trough, not a peak
Google demand drops through October and bottoms in November across nearly every type. Q4 budget should concentrate on retention, email and December’s rebound (dungarees peak in Dec) rather than chasing November cold traffic.
Scope mystery solved
The £147k-vs-£35.8k gap between the two Google reports is explained by the cost file: the lifetime product report is a product-click subset (£15.7k of the true £84.5k spend). Account pair: £84.5k → £147.2k = 1.74x; the Shopping product slice runs 2.27x.
Who buys, where, and in what size
New vs returning
Products that bring buyers back
Markets
Size curve · units sold
When to push what — now part-measured
Updated against the measured Google curve in section 10. Search demand is now measured; Shopify and Meta monthlies (below) will confirm whether total revenue follows the same shape.
Everything peaks in September — be live by mid-August
Measured: jackets, jeans, hoodies and joggers all peak in Sep. Front-load feed priority and budget on the Vintage Stonewash Boxy, Norton family, HARRINGTON and the surging Acid Wash Biker so campaigns exit learning before the spike.
Q4 is a revenue peak won without search
Measured: Nov (£9.8k avg) and Dec (£10.6k avg) are the #2–3 revenue months while Google demand bottoms out. That revenue comes via direct, promo and social — so Q4 budget goes to BFCM offers, email (£568 lifetime is a scandal) and retargeting the existing base, not cold search.
Steady build through Q1
Demand recovers Jan and builds to spring. Bottoms lead: cargos are the highest £/SKU category (£592). Watch the fade on the Acid Wash Wide Leg Cargos (both washes declining) — refresh creative or rotate in the rising Zane Tree Camo Cargo Jeans.
May is the biggest month of the year — plan for it
Measured: May is the year’s second peak — jackets and trousers spike alongside the summer build. Cargos and tees peak Jun, jorts Jul, shorts Aug. Run transitional outerwear and summer denim simultaneously in May, then hand over to jorts/shorts.
Never let winners go dark
The push list in section 07 stays funded year-round at maintenance level. Google Shopping at 2.27 ROAS earns budget before Meta does until Meta's product-level value reporting is fixed.
Data gaps — what's needed to finish the job
Three of four received. One genuine gap remains — Meta’s value columns:
- Received ✓ · Shopify monthly salesMonthly totals now power the revenue curve in section 10. Product-level monthly (grouped by product × month) would still sharpen per-SKU trends — nice-to-have, not blocking.
- Meta · conversion value columns — still the missing pieceThe monthly Meta file arrived but Results value and ROAS are empty on all 48k rows (“mixed” result type). In Ads Reporting set the result type to Purchases and add Purchases conversion value + Product name. Until then Meta remains unjudgeable on value — though the spend-cut experiment above speaks loudly.
- Received ✓ · Google monthly product report + monthly costBoth in. Scope question resolved: the lifetime product report is a product-click subset; account truth is £84.5k cost → £147.2k value (1.74x).
- Received ✓ · Referrer by monthNow feeding the social-sales trend and the Meta experiment analysis in section 10.